This week Activision-Blizzard had something called an Earnings Call, and while I won’t pretend to understand exactly what that is (other than an opportunity to gloat about how well they’re doing), there’s one interesting tidbit of information that stuck out to me: World of Warcraft has over 10 million subscribers again.
This reminded me of a post I wrote back in July of 2013, A Look at World of Warcraft Subscription Numbers, where, in response to a post on another blog, I discussed the latest subscription numbers and the trends. It’s not very often I take the time to look back at predictions I made on this blog, which is probably a good thing for my confidence because boy was I wrong in that post.
In the 2013 post I predicted, in one model, WoW would hit 652k subscribers in the first quarter of 2015. Assuming the 2014 Q4 subscription numbers hold fairly steady for 2015 Q1, which is a reasonable assumption, that means that my first model had a relative error of 1,434%.
You can see after the 34th quarter where my predictions started to deviate from the actual data.
The huge spike at the 2014 Q4 marks when Warlords of Draenor dropped, and apparently over 2 million people subscribed to WoW for it.
I’m very glad I was wrong, it means World of Warcraft will be around for a long while yet, but it’s interesting to follow up on my predictions and see how poorly I did. Maybe I’ll check in on this issue again in a few years and see where we stand then.